🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."